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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5949Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9992Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%14.0%43
10–20%16.0%13.8%224
20–30%24.9%27.3%557
30–40%34.4%30.4%230
40–50%44.4%46.9%177
50–60%54.7%48.4%126
60–70%64.2%63.7%80
70–80%74.3%82.1%39
80–90%85.2%75.0%12
90–100%92.4%66.7%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 23:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home31.54% Draw24.90% Away43.56%
    2–3 Correct pick
  2. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home31.54% Draw24.90% Away43.56%
    2–3 Correct pick
  3. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home43.26% Draw23.59% Away33.15%
    2–3 Missed
  4. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home43.26% Draw23.59% Away33.15%
    2–3 Missed
  5. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home43.26% Draw23.60% Away33.15%
    2–3 Missed
  6. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home43.26% Draw23.60% Away33.15%
    2–3 Missed
  7. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home43.25% Draw23.60% Away33.15%
    2–3 Missed
  8. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home43.25% Draw23.61% Away33.14%
    2–3 Missed
  9. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home43.24% Draw23.61% Away33.14%
    2–3 Missed
  10. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home44.23% Draw24.52% Away31.25%
    2–3 Missed
  11. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home47.45% Draw24.22% Away28.34%
    2–3 Missed
  12. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home46.55% Draw24.32% Away29.13%
    2–3 Missed
  13. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home48.05% Draw22.61% Away29.34%
    2–3 Missed
  14. Published K3 League · South Korea
    Dangjin Citizen Gyeongju HNP
    Home29.14% Draw24.73% Away46.13%
    2–3 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.