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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5520Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9334Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.3%1.8%55
10–20%15.9%11.7%188
20–30%24.8%23.6%564
30–40%34.8%38.3%243
40–50%44.7%41.6%185
50–60%54.3%55.6%117
60–70%64.5%76.7%60
70–80%74.7%88.2%34
80–90%82.9%85.7%21
90–100%92.8%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 17 Oct 2026 · 00:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home63.19% Draw20.65% Away16.16%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home63.08% Draw20.68% Away16.24%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home62.91% Draw20.74% Away16.35%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home61.83% Draw21.14% Away17.02%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home61.86% Draw21.14% Away17.00%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home70.49% Draw18.11% Away11.40%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home70.58% Draw18.06% Away11.36%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home73.91% Draw16.73% Away9.36%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home73.91% Draw16.73% Away9.36%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home74.19% Draw16.62% Away9.19%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home71.71% Draw17.62% Away10.67%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home72.90% Draw16.75% Away10.35%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Monarcas Tlaxcala
    Home69.59% Draw25.36% Away5.05%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.