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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5566Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9405Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%4.9%81
10–20%15.8%16.2%235
20–30%24.8%25.0%511
30–40%34.6%32.9%210
40–50%44.6%43.3%164
50–60%54.2%56.0%100
60–70%64.3%62.5%88
70–80%74.6%78.7%47
80–90%84.7%89.5%19
90–100%94.9%100.0%15

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 20:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home62.57% Draw21.34% Away16.10%
    3–2 Correct pick
  2. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home64.97% Draw20.71% Away14.31%
    3–2 Correct pick
  3. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home65.11% Draw20.63% Away14.26%
    3–2 Correct pick
  4. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home65.11% Draw20.63% Away14.26%
    3–2 Correct pick
  5. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home64.91% Draw20.72% Away14.37%
    3–2 Correct pick
  6. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home63.79% Draw20.99% Away15.22%
    3–2 Correct pick
  7. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home63.79% Draw20.98% Away15.22%
    3–2 Correct pick
  8. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home63.32% Draw21.86% Away14.82%
    3–2 Correct pick
  9. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home60.41% Draw23.27% Away16.32%
    3–2 Correct pick
  10. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home60.41% Draw23.27% Away16.32%
    3–2 Correct pick
  11. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home55.79% Draw24.43% Away19.77%
    3–2 Correct pick
  12. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home54.12% Draw24.82% Away21.06%
    3–2 Correct pick
  13. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home52.54% Draw26.49% Away20.97%
    3–2 Correct pick
  14. Published Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
    Dragones de Oaxaca Real Refineros
    Home54.03% Draw20.56% Away25.41%
    3–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.