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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5987Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9988Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.3%3.2%31
10–20%16.2%19.4%165
20–30%25.4%21.8%588
30–40%34.4%39.4%287
40–50%44.7%44.9%185
50–60%54.4%62.3%122
60–70%64.7%53.3%60
70–80%74.3%68.4%19
80–90%84.7%90.9%11
90–100%96.5%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 06 Oct 2026 · 02:37 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home67.42% Draw18.44% Away14.14%
    2–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home77.72% Draw14.09% Away8.20%
    2–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home77.79% Draw14.09% Away8.11%
    2–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home78.06% Draw13.98% Away7.96%
    2–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home77.96% Draw14.03% Away8.01%
    2–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home77.92% Draw14.01% Away8.06%
    2–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home77.55% Draw14.27% Away8.19%
    2–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home77.06% Draw14.51% Away8.43%
    2–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home77.06% Draw14.51% Away8.43%
    2–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home73.95% Draw16.23% Away9.82%
    2–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home73.95% Draw16.23% Away9.82%
    2–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home75.34% Draw15.23% Away9.43%
    2–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home69.56% Draw16.53% Away13.91%
    2–0 Correct pick
  14. Published Friendlies · World
    USA U19 Wales U19
    Home69.56% Draw16.53% Away13.91%
    2–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.