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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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480graded matches
0.5651Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9559Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 20 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%7.9%76
10–20%16.2%14.6%198
20–30%24.8%24.3%534
30–40%34.4%33.5%203
40–50%44.9%44.7%179
50–60%54.8%57.6%118
60–70%64.5%67.2%67
70–80%75.7%87.9%33
80–90%83.5%63.2%19
90–100%94.6%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (480)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 01:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home26.68% Draw26.48% Away46.84%
    2–1 Missed
  2. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home26.40% Draw26.18% Away47.42%
    2–1 Missed
  3. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home26.40% Draw26.18% Away47.42%
    2–1 Missed
  4. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home34.68% Draw27.17% Away38.15%
    2–1 Missed
  5. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home34.68% Draw27.17% Away38.15%
    2–1 Missed
  6. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home34.68% Draw27.17% Away38.15%
    2–1 Missed
  7. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home32.13% Draw27.24% Away40.64%
    2–1 Missed
  8. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home32.50% Draw27.26% Away40.24%
    2–1 Missed
  9. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home32.26% Draw27.86% Away39.88%
    2–1 Missed
  10. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home31.61% Draw25.83% Away42.56%
    2–1 Missed
  11. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home31.61% Draw25.83% Away42.56%
    2–1 Missed
  12. Published Division Intermedia · Paraguay
    Tacuary Benjamín Aceval
    Home35.37% Draw26.33% Away38.29%
    2–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.