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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5575Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9422Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%5.4%56
10–20%16.3%15.3%222
20–30%24.3%22.4%513
30–40%35.3%38.3%227
40–50%44.5%40.3%201
50–60%54.2%58.2%122
60–70%64.0%75.0%72
70–80%72.4%76.9%26
80–90%84.4%81.0%21
90–100%94.4%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: Earlier models (292) · v5 (191) · v3 (6)

Updated 24 Sep 2026 · 02:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Liga MX Femenil · Mexico
    Querétaro W Atlético San Luis W
    Home14.39% Draw17.00% Away68.62%
    Awaiting result
  2. Liga MX Femenil · Mexico
    Querétaro W Atlético San Luis W
    Home14.39% Draw17.00% Away68.62%
    Awaiting result
  3. Liga MX Femenil · Mexico
    Querétaro W Atlético San Luis W
    Home14.83% Draw17.29% Away67.87%
    Awaiting result
  4. Liga MX Femenil · Mexico
    Querétaro W Atlético San Luis W
    Home17.74% Draw18.76% Away63.50%
    Awaiting result
  5. Liga MX Femenil · Mexico
    Querétaro W Atlético San Luis W
    Home17.60% Draw18.63% Away63.77%
    Awaiting result
  6. Liga MX Femenil · Mexico
    Querétaro W Atlético San Luis W
    Home20.95% Draw19.11% Away59.94%
    Awaiting result

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.