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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.6002Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0059Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%13.3%45
10–20%16.1%15.4%221
20–30%24.9%27.0%559
30–40%34.3%30.4%227
40–50%44.4%48.1%181
50–60%54.8%46.8%124
60–70%64.2%63.9%83
70–80%74.5%77.8%36
80–90%85.3%72.7%11
90–100%93.1%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 26 Oct 2026 · 03:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home71.88% Draw18.36% Away9.75%
    4–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home71.94% Draw18.31% Away9.75%
    4–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home71.94% Draw18.31% Away9.75%
    4–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home72.01% Draw18.25% Away9.74%
    4–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home72.01% Draw18.25% Away9.74%
    4–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home72.01% Draw18.25% Away9.74%
    4–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home71.82% Draw18.39% Away9.79%
    4–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home75.41% Draw16.45% Away8.14%
    4–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home75.41% Draw16.45% Away8.14%
    4–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home74.94% Draw16.52% Away8.54%
    4–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home70.39% Draw18.15% Away11.45%
    4–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Carioca U20 · Brazil
    Botafogo U20 Maricá U20
    Home70.42% Draw18.13% Away11.45%
    4–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.