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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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485graded matches
0.5489Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9320Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 15 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.1%5.3%38
10–20%16.3%10.9%201
20–30%25.0%22.6%548
30–40%34.2%33.9%251
40–50%44.5%48.3%176
50–60%54.6%59.4%128
60–70%64.2%73.1%67
70–80%74.5%91.7%36
80–90%86.1%88.9%9
90–100%92.7%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (485)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 14:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home30.67% Draw23.05% Away46.29%
    5–3 Missed
  2. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home30.31% Draw23.09% Away46.60%
    5–3 Missed
  3. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home30.31% Draw23.09% Away46.60%
    5–3 Missed
  4. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home30.31% Draw23.09% Away46.60%
    5–3 Missed
  5. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home30.31% Draw23.09% Away46.60%
    5–3 Missed
  6. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home30.31% Draw23.09% Away46.60%
    5–3 Missed
  7. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home30.31% Draw23.09% Away46.61%
    5–3 Missed
  8. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home24.71% Draw22.54% Away52.75%
    5–3 Missed
  9. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home26.46% Draw22.70% Away50.85%
    5–3 Missed
  10. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home26.46% Draw22.70% Away50.85%
    5–3 Missed
  11. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home26.40% Draw22.64% Away50.96%
    5–3 Missed
  12. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home27.38% Draw22.81% Away49.80%
    5–3 Missed
  13. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home27.28% Draw23.17% Away49.55%
    5–3 Missed
  14. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hoogeveen SC Genemuiden
    Home28.50% Draw29.01% Away42.48%
    5–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.