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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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481graded matches
0.5663Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9569Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 19 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%9.6%73
10–20%16.3%12.7%189
20–30%24.8%23.4%539
30–40%34.2%34.6%214
40–50%44.8%48.9%186
50–60%54.6%57.8%109
60–70%64.3%65.2%69
70–80%75.6%83.8%37
80–90%83.3%53.3%15
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (481)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 18:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home60.10% Draw21.38% Away18.51%
    1–2 Missed
  2. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home60.10% Draw21.38% Away18.51%
    1–2 Missed
  3. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home60.11% Draw21.37% Away18.51%
    1–2 Missed
  4. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home60.11% Draw21.37% Away18.51%
    1–2 Missed
  5. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home60.11% Draw21.37% Away18.51%
    1–2 Missed
  6. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home60.11% Draw21.38% Away18.51%
    1–2 Missed
  7. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home59.68% Draw21.57% Away18.75%
    1–2 Missed
  8. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home55.21% Draw22.40% Away22.39%
    1–2 Missed
  9. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home55.21% Draw22.40% Away22.39%
    1–2 Missed
  10. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home55.34% Draw22.32% Away22.34%
    1–2 Missed
  11. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home53.80% Draw22.63% Away23.58%
    1–2 Missed
  12. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home53.05% Draw23.44% Away23.50%
    1–2 Missed
  13. Published 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Switzerland
    Monthey Lancy
    Home36.39% Draw37.32% Away26.29%
    1–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.