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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5932Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9963Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%10.9%46
10–20%16.0%15.4%228
20–30%24.9%26.8%559
30–40%34.4%31.5%213
40–50%44.4%45.5%176
50–60%54.7%49.2%128
60–70%64.2%63.1%84
70–80%74.5%78.9%38
80–90%85.1%83.3%12
90–100%93.1%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 26 Oct 2026 · 09:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home52.01% Draw23.64% Away24.35%
    3–2 Correct pick
  2. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home51.55% Draw23.73% Away24.72%
    3–2 Correct pick
  3. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home51.55% Draw23.73% Away24.72%
    3–2 Correct pick
  4. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home51.55% Draw23.73% Away24.72%
    3–2 Correct pick
  5. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home52.76% Draw23.48% Away23.76%
    3–2 Correct pick
  6. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home52.75% Draw23.48% Away23.77%
    3–2 Correct pick
  7. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home53.14% Draw23.10% Away23.76%
    3–2 Correct pick
  8. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home43.93% Draw24.41% Away31.66%
    3–2 Correct pick
  9. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home43.93% Draw24.41% Away31.66%
    3–2 Correct pick
  10. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home37.48% Draw24.29% Away38.23%
    3–2 Missed
  11. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home37.48% Draw24.29% Away38.23%
    3–2 Missed
  12. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home36.85% Draw25.58% Away37.57%
    3–2 Missed
  13. Published FA Cup · Scotland
    Strathspey Thistle Dalbeattie Star
    Home15.47% Draw27.12% Away57.41%
    3–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.