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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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488graded matches
0.5568Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9410Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 12 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%3.1%32
10–20%16.2%10.4%164
20–30%25.0%22.2%604
30–40%34.6%33.1%254
40–50%44.8%52.4%185
50–60%54.6%60.8%125
60–70%64.7%76.5%68
70–80%75.4%90.0%20
80–90%83.3%77.8%9
90–100%93.7%66.7%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (488)

Updated 02 Nov 2026 · 16:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home52.55% Draw21.85% Away25.60%
    0–2 Missed
  2. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home52.55% Draw21.85% Away25.60%
    0–2 Missed
  3. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home55.22% Draw22.51% Away22.28%
    0–2 Missed
  4. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home55.22% Draw22.51% Away22.28%
    0–2 Missed
  5. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home55.22% Draw22.51% Away22.28%
    0–2 Missed
  6. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home55.22% Draw22.51% Away22.28%
    0–2 Missed
  7. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home55.22% Draw22.50% Away22.28%
    0–2 Missed
  8. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home55.28% Draw22.53% Away22.19%
    0–2 Missed
  9. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home62.96% Draw20.46% Away16.58%
    0–2 Missed
  10. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home62.96% Draw20.46% Away16.58%
    0–2 Missed
  11. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home63.10% Draw20.41% Away16.49%
    0–2 Missed
  12. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home61.02% Draw20.99% Away17.98%
    0–2 Missed
  13. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home60.01% Draw21.96% Away18.04%
    0–2 Missed
  14. Published Regionalliga - West · Austria
    Dornbirn Kitzbühel
    Home42.51% Draw32.66% Away24.83%
    0–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.