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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.6095Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0143Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.2%4.4%45
10–20%16.5%18.1%171
20–30%25.2%27.3%576
30–40%34.8%35.1%239
40–50%44.8%40.7%189
50–60%55.0%51.3%117
60–70%64.4%64.4%59
70–80%75.7%64.0%25
80–90%83.0%81.8%11
90–100%95.3%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (478) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 04:00 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home48.59% Draw23.35% Away28.06%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home46.58% Draw23.80% Away29.63%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home52.17% Draw22.71% Away25.13%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home44.25% Draw23.30% Away32.44%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home44.25% Draw23.30% Away32.44%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home44.25% Draw23.30% Away32.44%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home44.22% Draw23.33% Away32.45%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home44.62% Draw23.65% Away31.73%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home44.62% Draw23.65% Away31.73%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home43.73% Draw23.65% Away32.62%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home43.21% Draw23.69% Away33.10%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home43.72% Draw23.02% Away33.26%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Atvidabergs FF Trollhättan
    Home20.02% Draw32.60% Away47.38%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.