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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5656Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9568Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%7.7%65
10–20%15.9%10.6%227
20–30%24.6%26.4%542
30–40%34.6%33.3%219
40–50%44.6%45.7%164
50–60%54.6%52.8%125
60–70%64.6%71.4%77
70–80%74.8%73.5%49
80–90%84.1%89.5%19
90–100%94.5%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 22:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home72.24% Draw16.51% Away11.26%
    4–0 Correct pick
  2. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home72.24% Draw16.51% Away11.26%
    4–0 Correct pick
  3. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home72.24% Draw16.51% Away11.26%
    4–0 Correct pick
  4. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home72.45% Draw16.41% Away11.14%
    4–0 Correct pick
  5. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home72.42% Draw16.42% Away11.16%
    4–0 Correct pick
  6. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home72.43% Draw16.41% Away11.16%
    4–0 Correct pick
  7. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home72.17% Draw16.54% Away11.28%
    4–0 Correct pick
  8. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home66.83% Draw18.40% Away14.77%
    4–0 Correct pick
  9. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home66.83% Draw18.40% Away14.77%
    4–0 Correct pick
  10. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home66.23% Draw18.71% Away15.05%
    4–0 Correct pick
  11. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home64.01% Draw19.38% Away16.61%
    4–0 Correct pick
  12. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home65.66% Draw18.15% Away16.19%
    4–0 Correct pick
  13. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Šmartno Limbuš Pekre
    Home42.29% Draw33.23% Away24.48%
    4–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.