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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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499graded matches
0.6062Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0121Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 1 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.1%5.0%40
10–20%16.0%14.9%202
20–30%25.0%29.9%571
30–40%34.5%29.3%259
40–50%44.3%42.4%184
50–60%54.8%48.7%119
60–70%64.2%57.5%73
70–80%74.5%83.3%36
80–90%84.9%91.7%12
90–100%91.6%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (499)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 16:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home45.65% Draw27.44% Away26.91%
    1–3 Missed
  2. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home45.65% Draw27.44% Away26.91%
    1–3 Missed
  3. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home45.65% Draw27.44% Away26.91%
    1–3 Missed
  4. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home45.65% Draw27.44% Away26.91%
    1–3 Missed
  5. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home45.65% Draw27.44% Away26.91%
    1–3 Missed
  6. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home45.65% Draw27.45% Away26.90%
    1–3 Missed
  7. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home49.22% Draw26.70% Away24.08%
    1–3 Missed
  8. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home48.85% Draw26.63% Away24.52%
    1–3 Missed
  9. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home48.85% Draw26.63% Away24.52%
    1–3 Missed
  10. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home49.88% Draw26.38% Away23.74%
    1–3 Missed
  11. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home48.65% Draw26.59% Away24.76%
    1–3 Missed
  12. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home47.73% Draw27.71% Away24.56%
    1–3 Missed
  13. Published 1st League - FBiH · Bosnia
    Bratstvo Gračanica TOŠK Tešanj
    Home43.82% Draw31.95% Away24.23%
    1–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.