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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5592Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9433Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.4%5.0%80
10–20%15.8%15.5%226
20–30%24.8%25.3%518
30–40%34.6%33.5%212
40–50%44.7%42.8%166
50–60%54.2%55.9%102
60–70%64.2%65.5%84
70–80%74.6%73.9%46
80–90%85.0%88.9%18
90–100%94.9%100.0%15

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 30 Oct 2026 · 08:00 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home36.68% Draw24.79% Away38.54%
    2–1 Missed
  2. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home36.68% Draw24.79% Away38.54%
    2–1 Missed
  3. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home36.67% Draw24.79% Away38.54%
    2–1 Missed
  4. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home36.67% Draw24.79% Away38.54%
    2–1 Missed
  5. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home36.67% Draw24.79% Away38.54%
    2–1 Missed
  6. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home36.67% Draw24.79% Away38.54%
    2–1 Missed
  7. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home36.68% Draw24.77% Away38.55%
    2–1 Missed
  8. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home37.08% Draw24.23% Away38.69%
    2–1 Missed
  9. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home37.08% Draw24.23% Away38.69%
    2–1 Missed
  10. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home39.37% Draw24.33% Away36.29%
    2–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home39.23% Draw24.34% Away36.43%
    2–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home39.85% Draw23.24% Away36.90%
    2–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Chavdar Etropole Slivnishki geroy
    Home28.71% Draw29.05% Away42.25%
    2–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.