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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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499graded matches
0.5859Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9831Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 1 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%4.1%49
10–20%15.5%17.5%171
20–30%25.0%24.2%587
30–40%34.5%35.4%268
40–50%44.6%44.6%195
50–60%53.9%54.7%106
60–70%64.5%59.4%69
70–80%75.4%82.9%35
80–90%84.8%91.7%12
90–100%94.7%80.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (499)

Updated 17 Oct 2026 · 17:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home40.27% Draw24.91% Away34.82%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home40.32% Draw24.88% Away34.80%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home40.32% Draw24.88% Away34.80%
    0–0 Missed
  4. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home40.32% Draw24.88% Away34.80%
    0–0 Missed
  5. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home40.32% Draw24.88% Away34.80%
    0–0 Missed
  6. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home40.33% Draw24.87% Away34.81%
    0–0 Missed
  7. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home39.25% Draw25.12% Away35.64%
    0–0 Missed
  8. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home42.47% Draw25.09% Away32.45%
    0–0 Missed
  9. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home42.47% Draw25.09% Away32.45%
    0–0 Missed
  10. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home42.63% Draw25.07% Away32.30%
    0–0 Missed
  11. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home42.15% Draw25.10% Away32.75%
    0–0 Missed
  12. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home41.11% Draw26.71% Away32.19%
    0–0 Missed
  13. Published 3. liga - West · Slovakia
    Slovan Duslo Šaľa Rača
    Home25.96% Draw33.21% Away40.83%
    0–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.