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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5992Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9993Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%5.4%37
10–20%16.1%18.3%153
20–30%25.4%22.9%598
30–40%34.6%38.6%290
40–50%44.6%44.4%189
50–60%54.2%60.7%117
60–70%64.5%53.6%56
70–80%74.4%65.0%20
80–90%84.7%92.9%14
90–100%96.5%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 05 Oct 2026 · 13:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home29.09% Draw25.18% Away45.73%
    2–1 Missed
  2. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home34.52% Draw25.60% Away39.89%
    2–1 Missed
  3. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home25.39% Draw25.46% Away49.14%
    2–1 Missed
  4. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home25.39% Draw25.46% Away49.14%
    2–1 Missed
  5. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home25.39% Draw25.46% Away49.14%
    2–1 Missed
  6. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home25.40% Draw25.46% Away49.14%
    2–1 Missed
  7. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home25.40% Draw25.47% Away49.13%
    2–1 Missed
  8. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home25.41% Draw25.48% Away49.12%
    2–1 Missed
  9. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home25.41% Draw25.48% Away49.12%
    2–1 Missed
  10. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home24.02% Draw26.37% Away49.61%
    2–1 Missed
  11. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home24.10% Draw26.42% Away49.48%
    2–1 Missed
  12. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home25.09% Draw26.62% Away48.28%
    2–1 Missed
  13. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Home24.59% Draw29.63% Away45.79%
    2–1 Missed
  14. Published 1 Lyga · Lithuania
    Garliava Dainava
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.