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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5665Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9570Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%9.3%75
10–20%16.2%13.0%192
20–30%24.8%23.6%533
30–40%34.2%34.3%210
40–50%44.7%48.6%181
50–60%54.6%57.1%112
60–70%64.3%63.6%66
70–80%75.3%85.0%40
80–90%83.4%56.3%16
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 02:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home21.82% Draw26.22% Away51.97%
    2–1 Missed
  2. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home21.82% Draw26.22% Away51.97%
    2–1 Missed
  3. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home24.64% Draw28.42% Away46.94%
    2–1 Missed
  4. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home24.64% Draw28.42% Away46.94%
    2–1 Missed
  5. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home24.67% Draw28.19% Away47.13%
    2–1 Missed
  6. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home27.10% Draw28.39% Away44.51%
    2–1 Missed
  7. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home27.11% Draw28.33% Away44.56%
    2–1 Missed
  8. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home29.70% Draw30.33% Away39.97%
    2–1 Missed
  9. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home27.48% Draw31.09% Away41.44%
    2–1 Missed
  10. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home27.48% Draw31.09% Away41.44%
    2–1 Missed
  11. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home35.94% Draw29.11% Away34.94%
    2–1 Correct pick
  12. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home35.94% Draw29.11% Away34.94%
    2–1 Correct pick
  13. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home35.93% Draw29.14% Away34.93%
    2–1 Correct pick
  14. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    Martinique Honduras
    Home34.17% Draw29.87% Away35.96%
    2–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.