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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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495graded matches
0.6002Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0007Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 5 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%4.1%49
10–20%16.1%15.2%171
20–30%25.2%26.7%589
30–40%34.7%36.3%256
40–50%44.6%42.5%200
50–60%54.8%51.8%112
60–70%64.7%61.7%60
70–80%74.8%74.2%31
80–90%83.3%75.0%12
90–100%93.8%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 19:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home48.63% Draw25.14% Away26.23%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home48.63% Draw25.14% Away26.23%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home53.58% Draw23.49% Away22.93%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home52.20% Draw23.90% Away23.90%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home51.58% Draw24.04% Away24.37%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home51.58% Draw24.04% Away24.37%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home53.10% Draw23.64% Away23.26%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home53.10% Draw23.64% Away23.26%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home52.94% Draw23.87% Away23.18%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home29.56% Draw26.63% Away43.80%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home29.56% Draw26.63% Away43.80%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home29.56% Draw26.63% Away43.80%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home29.56% Draw26.63% Away43.80%
    1–1 Missed
  14. Published Friendlies · World
    Hungary U19 Bulgaria U19
    Home25.41% Draw28.56% Away46.03%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.