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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5942Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9951Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%0.0%38
10–20%16.0%18.2%198
20–30%25.1%25.6%575
30–40%34.4%31.2%237
40–50%44.8%48.9%184
50–60%54.8%56.0%125
60–70%65.2%53.9%76
70–80%73.6%81.8%22
80–90%84.5%87.5%8
90–100%93.2%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 20:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home22.12% Draw25.59% Away52.29%
    3–3 Missed
  2. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home26.86% Draw25.36% Away47.78%
    3–3 Missed
  3. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home21.08% Draw21.47% Away57.46%
    3–3 Missed
  4. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home21.08% Draw21.47% Away57.46%
    3–3 Missed
  5. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home21.06% Draw21.27% Away57.67%
    3–3 Missed
  6. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home18.57% Draw19.84% Away61.59%
    3–3 Missed
  7. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home18.56% Draw19.79% Away61.65%
    3–3 Missed
  8. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home18.56% Draw19.79% Away61.64%
    3–3 Missed
  9. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home20.41% Draw20.69% Away58.90%
    3–3 Missed
  10. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home20.41% Draw20.69% Away58.90%
    3–3 Missed
  11. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home27.14% Draw22.59% Away50.28%
    3–3 Missed
  12. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home27.14% Draw22.59% Away50.28%
    3–3 Missed
  13. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home27.13% Draw22.61% Away50.26%
    3–3 Missed
  14. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Kitts and Nevis Cuba
    Home47.25% Draw28.40% Away24.35%
    3–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.