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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5642Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9540Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%9.5%74
10–20%16.2%12.6%191
20–30%24.8%23.4%535
30–40%34.2%34.8%210
40–50%44.7%48.6%183
50–60%54.6%57.3%110
60–70%64.2%65.7%67
70–80%75.3%84.6%39
80–90%83.4%56.3%16
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 22:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home32.68% Draw24.66% Away42.66%
    3–0 Missed
  2. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home31.46% Draw24.37% Away44.17%
    3–0 Missed
  3. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home10.59% Draw18.40% Away71.01%
    3–0 Missed
  4. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home10.59% Draw18.40% Away71.01%
    3–0 Missed
  5. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home10.53% Draw18.17% Away71.30%
    3–0 Missed
  6. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home5.23% Draw13.65% Away81.12%
    3–0 Missed
  7. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home5.22% Draw13.59% Away81.19%
    3–0 Missed
  8. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home5.23% Draw13.61% Away81.16%
    3–0 Missed
  9. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home5.11% Draw12.33% Away82.56%
    3–0 Missed
  10. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home5.11% Draw12.33% Away82.56%
    3–0 Missed
  11. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home11.87% Draw17.79% Away70.35%
    3–0 Missed
  12. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home11.87% Draw17.79% Away70.35%
    3–0 Missed
  13. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home11.87% Draw17.81% Away70.32%
    3–0 Missed
  14. Published CONCACAF Nations League · World
    St. Lucia Guadeloupe
    Home30.38% Draw29.30% Away40.32%
    3–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.