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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5816Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9748Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%7.3%41
10–20%16.0%14.9%195
20–30%25.0%24.0%572
30–40%34.4%33.9%236
40–50%44.4%49.2%179
50–60%54.4%55.6%126
60–70%64.2%62.9%62
70–80%73.8%72.1%43
80–90%85.4%90.9%11
90–100%94.7%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 01 Nov 2026 · 01:21 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home78.08% Draw14.23% Away7.69%
    3–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home78.62% Draw13.92% Away7.47%
    3–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home78.68% Draw13.93% Away7.39%
    3–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home78.46% Draw14.06% Away7.48%
    3–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home78.36% Draw14.12% Away7.52%
    3–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home76.68% Draw15.01% Away8.32%
    3–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home76.31% Draw15.26% Away8.43%
    3–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home75.82% Draw15.50% Away8.67%
    3–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home75.82% Draw15.50% Away8.67%
    3–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home72.68% Draw16.85% Away10.47%
    3–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home72.68% Draw16.85% Away10.47%
    3–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home73.89% Draw15.98% Away10.12%
    3–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Georgia U17
    Home41.22% Draw29.18% Away29.60%
    3–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.