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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5580Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9421Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%4.9%81
10–20%15.8%16.0%237
20–30%24.8%25.3%506
30–40%34.6%32.5%212
40–50%44.6%43.6%163
50–60%54.3%56.1%98
60–70%64.3%62.9%89
70–80%74.5%76.6%47
80–90%84.7%89.5%19
90–100%94.9%100.0%15

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 23:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home23.63% Draw25.65% Away50.72%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home20.69% Draw24.92% Away54.39%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home20.69% Draw24.92% Away54.39%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home20.69% Draw24.92% Away54.39%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home20.69% Draw24.92% Away54.39%
    2–2 Missed
  6. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home20.69% Draw24.92% Away54.39%
    2–2 Missed
  7. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home20.69% Draw24.92% Away54.39%
    2–2 Missed
  8. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home35.80% Draw33.99% Away30.21%
    2–2 Missed
  9. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home35.80% Draw33.99% Away30.21%
    2–2 Missed
  10. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home39.13% Draw32.65% Away28.22%
    2–2 Missed
  11. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home39.13% Draw32.65% Away28.22%
    2–2 Missed
  12. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home51.73% Draw27.83% Away20.44%
    2–2 Missed
  13. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home51.73% Draw27.83% Away20.44%
    2–2 Missed
  14. Published Friendlies · World
    Palestine New Zealand
    Home51.73% Draw27.83% Away20.44%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.