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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5669Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9583Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%8.0%75
10–20%16.2%14.9%195
20–30%24.8%24.3%535
30–40%34.4%33.3%204
40–50%44.9%45.0%180
50–60%54.8%57.6%118
60–70%64.5%66.7%66
70–80%75.7%87.9%33
80–90%83.7%61.1%18
90–100%94.6%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 02:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home36.34% Draw24.85% Away38.80%
    3–3 Missed
  2. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home30.83% Draw23.05% Away46.12%
    3–3 Missed
  3. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home30.83% Draw23.05% Away46.12%
    3–3 Missed
  4. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home30.84% Draw23.05% Away46.12%
    3–3 Missed
  5. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home30.81% Draw23.05% Away46.14%
    3–3 Missed
  6. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home25.67% Draw22.52% Away51.81%
    3–3 Missed
  7. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home25.67% Draw22.52% Away51.80%
    3–3 Missed
  8. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home25.67% Draw22.52% Away51.80%
    3–3 Missed
  9. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home25.67% Draw22.52% Away51.80%
    3–3 Missed
  10. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home25.67% Draw22.52% Away51.80%
    3–3 Missed
  11. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home27.45% Draw22.78% Away49.77%
    3–3 Missed
  12. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home28.36% Draw22.92% Away48.72%
    3–3 Missed
  13. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home28.29% Draw22.90% Away48.81%
    3–3 Missed
  14. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Harelbeke Hoogstraten
    Home16.30% Draw33.33% Away50.37%
    3–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.