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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5891Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9885Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%2.2%46
10–20%16.0%18.0%206
20–30%24.9%25.8%559
30–40%34.5%30.3%231
40–50%44.7%48.6%173
50–60%54.7%54.1%133
60–70%65.2%56.8%74
70–80%74.0%81.5%27
80–90%85.1%90.0%10
90–100%94.8%100.0%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 20 Oct 2026 · 11:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home54.30% Draw23.05% Away22.65%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home78.54% Draw13.70% Away7.76%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home78.61% Draw13.71% Away7.68%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home78.87% Draw13.59% Away7.54%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home78.76% Draw13.65% Away7.59%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home79.89% Draw12.95% Away7.15%
    2–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home79.52% Draw13.20% Away7.27%
    2–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home79.05% Draw13.44% Away7.50%
    2–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home79.05% Draw13.44% Away7.50%
    2–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home78.35% Draw13.71% Away7.94%
    2–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home78.35% Draw13.71% Away7.94%
    2–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home80.69% Draw12.04% Away7.27%
    2–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Home72.30% Draw13.76% Away13.94%
    2–1 Correct pick
  14. Published Friendlies · World
    England U19 Norway U19
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.