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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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485graded matches
0.5388Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9174Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 15 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%4.4%45
10–20%16.2%9.9%213
20–30%25.0%22.8%540
30–40%34.3%35.0%240
40–50%44.7%47.9%169
50–60%54.5%58.9%124
60–70%64.4%73.2%71
70–80%74.3%92.1%38
80–90%85.2%92.3%13
90–100%93.1%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (485)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 16:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home60.25% Draw17.75% Away22.00%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home61.48% Draw17.65% Away20.87%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home62.70% Draw16.33% Away20.97%
    1–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home62.70% Draw16.33% Away20.97%
    1–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home62.70% Draw16.33% Away20.97%
    1–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home66.98% Draw14.98% Away18.05%
    1–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home66.98% Draw14.98% Away18.05%
    1–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home66.98% Draw14.98% Away18.05%
    1–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home66.98% Draw14.98% Away18.05%
    1–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home67.24% Draw14.86% Away17.90%
    1–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home63.26% Draw15.70% Away21.03%
    1–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home63.24% Draw15.72% Away21.04%
    1–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home59.88% Draw19.64% Away20.48%
    1–0 Correct pick
  14. Published Professional Development League · England
    Coventry City U21 Colchester United U21
    Home40.74% Draw32.35% Away26.92%
    1–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.