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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5667Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9571Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%9.3%75
10–20%16.2%12.8%195
20–30%24.8%23.9%531
30–40%34.2%34.0%209
40–50%44.7%48.6%179
50–60%54.6%56.8%111
60–70%64.3%63.8%69
70–80%75.3%85.0%40
80–90%83.4%56.3%16
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 04:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home53.40% Draw24.92% Away21.68%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home53.40% Draw24.93% Away21.68%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home55.76% Draw24.27% Away19.96%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home54.37% Draw24.54% Away21.10%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home54.29% Draw24.57% Away21.14%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home54.29% Draw24.57% Away21.14%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home55.02% Draw24.39% Away20.59%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home53.42% Draw24.74% Away21.84%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home52.74% Draw25.50% Away21.75%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home47.93% Draw23.07% Away29.00%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home47.93% Draw23.07% Away29.00%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home49.09% Draw23.93% Away26.98%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published Paraibano 2 · Brazil
    Serrano PB Picuiense
    Home33.83% Draw29.82% Away36.34%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.