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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5617Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9471Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%7.2%83
10–20%15.9%15.1%239
20–30%24.7%24.8%513
30–40%34.7%33.0%206
40–50%44.7%47.2%163
50–60%54.6%54.9%102
60–70%64.1%63.2%87
70–80%74.5%77.1%48
80–90%85.3%80.8%26
90–100%94.4%100.0%9

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 14:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home40.65% Draw26.68% Away32.67%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home54.78% Draw25.70% Away19.52%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home54.50% Draw25.82% Away19.67%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home54.50% Draw25.82% Away19.67%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home54.51% Draw25.82% Away19.67%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home54.51% Draw25.82% Away19.67%
    0–1 Missed
  7. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home54.51% Draw25.82% Away19.67%
    0–1 Missed
  8. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home55.30% Draw25.58% Away19.11%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home53.63% Draw25.99% Away20.39%
    0–1 Missed
  10. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home52.28% Draw27.43% Away20.29%
    0–1 Missed
  11. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home50.21% Draw24.89% Away24.90%
    0–1 Missed
  12. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home50.21% Draw24.89% Away24.90%
    0–1 Missed
  13. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home50.21% Draw24.89% Away24.90%
    0–1 Missed
  14. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casarano SS Monopoli
    Home32.99% Draw32.69% Away34.32%
    0–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.