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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5928Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9894Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%0.0%56
10–20%16.5%18.8%202
20–30%24.9%26.2%543
30–40%34.5%35.5%251
40–50%43.9%39.8%176
50–60%54.9%52.8%123
60–70%64.7%65.8%73
70–80%74.8%68.8%32
80–90%84.3%86.7%15
90–100%92.8%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (484) · Earlier models (8)

Updated 09 Oct 2026 · 20:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home34.50% Draw27.29% Away38.21%
    0–3 Correct pick
  2. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home34.50% Draw27.29% Away38.21%
    0–3 Correct pick
  3. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home34.47% Draw27.30% Away38.23%
    0–3 Correct pick
  4. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home34.47% Draw27.30% Away38.23%
    0–3 Correct pick
  5. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home34.47% Draw27.30% Away38.23%
    0–3 Correct pick
  6. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home34.47% Draw27.30% Away38.23%
    0–3 Correct pick
  7. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home30.79% Draw26.88% Away42.33%
    0–3 Correct pick
  8. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home31.29% Draw26.92% Away41.79%
    0–3 Correct pick
  9. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home30.97% Draw27.82% Away41.21%
    0–3 Correct pick
  10. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home22.31% Draw23.47% Away54.22%
    0–3 Correct pick
  11. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home22.31% Draw23.47% Away54.22%
    0–3 Correct pick
  12. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home23.30% Draw23.47% Away53.23%
    0–3 Correct pick
  13. Published Carioca B2 · Brazil
    Paraty Paduano
    Home17.04% Draw33.23% Away49.72%
    0–3 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.