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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5576Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9412Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%6.3%63
10–20%16.3%13.8%210
20–30%24.7%23.9%545
30–40%34.9%33.6%229
40–50%44.6%45.0%171
50–60%54.3%60.8%130
60–70%64.6%72.6%62
70–80%74.1%75.0%36
80–90%84.1%80.0%25
90–100%92.6%80.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 17 Oct 2026 · 10:21 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Home74.26% Draw17.16% Away8.58%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Home72.88% Draw16.88% Away10.24%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Home72.82% Draw16.90% Away10.28%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Home72.76% Draw16.95% Away10.29%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Home73.67% Draw16.75% Away9.59%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Home73.67% Draw16.75% Away9.59%
    2–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Home73.47% Draw16.76% Away9.78%
    2–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Home73.47% Draw16.76% Away9.78%
    2–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Home75.80% Draw15.01% Away9.19%
    2–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Home69.81% Draw22.71% Away7.48%
    2–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Home69.81% Draw22.71% Away7.48%
    2–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  13. Published Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
    Hercílio Luz Nação
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.