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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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480graded matches
0.5693Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9620Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 20 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.2%11.5%78
10–20%16.2%12.8%195
20–30%24.8%23.7%535
30–40%34.2%34.0%200
40–50%44.7%48.9%180
50–60%54.5%57.0%114
60–70%64.3%62.7%67
70–80%75.3%81.4%43
80–90%83.4%56.3%16
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (480)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 07:41 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home53.89% Draw24.62% Away21.48%
    2–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home56.47% Draw24.18% Away19.35%
    2–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home60.46% Draw23.09% Away16.45%
    2–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home60.45% Draw23.13% Away16.42%
    2–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home60.45% Draw23.13% Away16.42%
    2–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home60.45% Draw23.13% Away16.42%
    2–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home60.45% Draw23.13% Away16.42%
    2–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home61.26% Draw22.86% Away15.88%
    2–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home59.22% Draw23.46% Away17.32%
    2–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home58.17% Draw24.50% Away17.33%
    2–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home55.72% Draw24.31% Away19.97%
    2–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home42.00% Draw42.96% Away15.05%
    2–0 Missed
  13. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Home42.00% Draw42.96% Away15.05%
    2–0 Missed
  14. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Spain
    Subiza Cirbonero
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.