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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5734Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9652Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%2.7%37
10–20%16.6%14.6%171
20–30%24.9%22.5%596
30–40%34.5%36.4%258
40–50%44.6%46.9%179
50–60%55.2%59.9%142
60–70%64.3%68.4%57
70–80%74.4%71.4%21
80–90%85.5%100.0%12
90–100%96.8%100.0%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 04 Oct 2026 · 03:36 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Home69.21% Draw20.61% Away10.18%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Home69.21% Draw20.61% Away10.18%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Home69.21% Draw20.61% Away10.18%
    1–0 Correct pick
  4. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Home69.21% Draw20.61% Away10.18%
    1–0 Correct pick
  5. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Home69.21% Draw20.61% Away10.18%
    1–0 Correct pick
  6. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Home61.34% Draw23.72% Away14.94%
    1–0 Correct pick
  7. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Home59.28% Draw24.35% Away16.37%
    1–0 Correct pick
  8. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Home57.39% Draw26.20% Away16.41%
    1–0 Correct pick
  9. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Home64.75% Draw24.71% Away10.54%
    1–0 Correct pick
  10. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Home67.14% Draw24.70% Away8.16%
    1–0 Correct pick
  11. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  12. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Mosconia Andes
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.