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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5671Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9577Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%9.3%75
10–20%16.2%12.7%197
20–30%24.8%24.2%530
30–40%34.2%33.8%207
40–50%44.7%48.3%178
50–60%54.6%56.3%112
60–70%64.4%64.3%70
70–80%75.3%85.0%40
80–90%83.4%56.3%16
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 06:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home25.98% Draw27.22% Away46.80%
    2–0 Missed
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home31.25% Draw29.13% Away39.61%
    2–0 Missed
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home29.55% Draw26.10% Away44.35%
    2–0 Missed
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home29.55% Draw26.10% Away44.35%
    2–0 Missed
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home29.55% Draw26.10% Away44.35%
    2–0 Missed
  6. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home29.55% Draw26.10% Away44.35%
    2–0 Missed
  7. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home29.55% Draw26.10% Away44.35%
    2–0 Missed
  8. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home29.47% Draw26.13% Away44.40%
    2–0 Missed
  9. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home30.10% Draw26.20% Away43.69%
    2–0 Missed
  10. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home30.30% Draw25.25% Away44.46%
    2–0 Missed
  11. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home23.80% Draw26.31% Away49.89%
    2–0 Missed
  12. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home19.07% Draw40.95% Away39.98%
    2–0 Missed
  13. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home22.53% Draw39.22% Away38.25%
    2–0 Missed
  14. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Celtiga Estradense
    Home20.83% Draw40.03% Away39.14%
    2–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.