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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5955Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9983Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.5%10.0%20
10–20%16.3%11.2%179
20–30%25.3%27.1%621
30–40%34.7%32.9%255
40–50%44.7%41.9%191
50–60%54.6%56.5%131
60–70%63.9%73.4%64
70–80%74.1%76.9%26
80–90%84.4%50.0%4
90–100%--0

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 12 Oct 2026 · 05:35 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home55.38% Draw25.39% Away19.23%
    2–3 Missed
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home55.69% Draw25.24% Away19.06%
    2–3 Missed
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home55.69% Draw25.24% Away19.06%
    2–3 Missed
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home55.69% Draw25.24% Away19.06%
    2–3 Missed
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home55.69% Draw25.24% Away19.06%
    2–3 Missed
  6. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home55.69% Draw25.24% Away19.06%
    2–3 Missed
  7. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home59.01% Draw24.37% Away16.62%
    2–3 Missed
  8. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home57.09% Draw24.90% Away18.00%
    2–3 Missed
  9. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home56.45% Draw25.59% Away17.96%
    2–3 Missed
  10. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home57.12% Draw25.42% Away17.46%
    2–3 Missed
  11. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home42.95% Draw43.91% Away13.13%
    2–3 Missed
  12. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Home42.95% Draw43.91% Away13.13%
    2–3 Missed
  13. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Spain
    Portuense Chiclana
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.