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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5601Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9455Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%6.7%75
10–20%15.8%15.6%231
20–30%24.7%23.8%521
30–40%34.7%33.0%215
40–50%44.7%48.5%167
50–60%54.4%55.6%99
60–70%64.2%64.4%90
70–80%74.7%77.3%44
80–90%85.3%81.0%21
90–100%94.7%100.0%10

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 16:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Home53.05% Draw26.52% Away20.43%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Home52.82% Draw26.59% Away20.60%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Home49.31% Draw27.18% Away23.52%
    1–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Home45.98% Draw27.72% Away26.30%
    1–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  6. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  7. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  8. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  9. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  10. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  11. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  12. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  13. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · Spain
    Numancia Guadalajara
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.