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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5854Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9819Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.3%0.0%36
10–20%15.9%14.9%195
20–30%25.2%25.5%593
30–40%34.6%32.0%228
40–50%44.9%50.0%176
50–60%54.7%57.6%132
60–70%65.1%54.9%71
70–80%73.7%84.0%25
80–90%84.1%87.5%8
90–100%92.4%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 15:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home29.70% Draw28.30% Away42.00%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home30.48% Draw28.47% Away41.05%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home43.22% Draw28.09% Away28.69%
    0–0 Missed
  4. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home24.29% Draw26.77% Away48.94%
    0–0 Missed
  5. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home24.29% Draw26.77% Away48.94%
    0–0 Missed
  6. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home24.29% Draw26.77% Away48.94%
    0–0 Missed
  7. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home24.03% Draw26.66% Away49.32%
    0–0 Missed
  8. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home25.02% Draw26.86% Away48.12%
    0–0 Missed
  9. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home24.84% Draw27.71% Away47.45%
    0–0 Missed
  10. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home32.02% Draw25.52% Away42.46%
    0–0 Missed
  11. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home27.12% Draw36.93% Away35.96%
    0–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home29.73% Draw35.62% Away34.65%
    0–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Náxara Barbastro
    Home17.34% Draw41.77% Away40.90%
    0–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.