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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5839Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9811Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%11.4%79
10–20%15.9%13.9%201
20–30%24.9%25.1%526
30–40%34.1%36.8%204
40–50%44.9%44.9%176
50–60%54.4%53.2%109
60–70%64.5%63.1%65
70–80%75.0%73.5%49
80–90%83.5%61.1%18
90–100%93.2%100.0%10

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 12:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home45.23% Draw27.89% Away26.87%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home45.20% Draw27.90% Away26.90%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home41.42% Draw29.18% Away29.40%
    1–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home59.20% Draw23.85% Away16.95%
    1–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home59.20% Draw23.85% Away16.95%
    1–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home59.20% Draw23.85% Away16.95%
    1–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home59.06% Draw23.88% Away17.06%
    1–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home57.15% Draw24.40% Away18.45%
    1–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home57.12% Draw24.51% Away18.37%
    1–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home53.81% Draw24.64% Away21.55%
    1–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home41.26% Draw42.22% Away16.53%
    1–0 Missed
  12. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home41.26% Draw42.22% Away16.53%
    1–0 Missed
  13. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
    Eibar II Compostela
    Home38.97% Draw39.87% Away21.15%
    1–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.