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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5585Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9434Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%8.6%93
10–20%15.9%13.9%259
20–30%24.6%25.5%499
30–40%34.8%33.7%187
40–50%44.8%45.4%152
50–60%54.8%56.7%104
60–70%64.1%63.0%92
70–80%74.3%73.6%53
80–90%85.5%79.3%29
90–100%94.3%100.0%11

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 28 Oct 2026 · 22:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home47.60% Draw28.09% Away24.31%
    0–1 Missed
  2. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home47.82% Draw28.03% Away24.15%
    0–1 Missed
  3. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home47.82% Draw28.03% Away24.15%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home47.82% Draw28.04% Away24.15%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home47.82% Draw28.04% Away24.15%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home47.82% Draw28.04% Away24.15%
    0–1 Missed
  7. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home52.03% Draw26.87% Away21.10%
    0–1 Missed
  8. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home50.58% Draw27.18% Away22.25%
    0–1 Missed
  9. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home49.25% Draw28.70% Away22.06%
    0–1 Missed
  10. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home40.52% Draw24.38% Away35.10%
    0–1 Missed
  11. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home40.52% Draw24.38% Away35.10%
    0–1 Missed
  12. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home40.52% Draw24.38% Away35.10%
    0–1 Missed
  13. Published Serie D - Girone I · Italy
    Ragusa Trapani 1905
    Home32.27% Draw32.35% Away35.39%
    0–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.