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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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482graded matches
0.5674Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9577Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 18 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.3%7.0%71
10–20%16.3%16.2%197
20–30%24.8%23.9%528
30–40%34.4%31.5%222
40–50%44.8%47.6%187
50–60%54.9%58.4%113
60–70%64.5%65.7%70
70–80%75.9%84.6%26
80–90%83.5%68.4%19
90–100%95.4%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (482)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 20:11 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home47.78% Draw26.70% Away25.53%
    7–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home38.62% Draw27.63% Away33.74%
    7–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home38.62% Draw27.63% Away33.74%
    7–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home51.20% Draw26.63% Away22.16%
    7–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home51.21% Draw26.63% Away22.16%
    7–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home51.21% Draw26.63% Away22.16%
    7–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home51.21% Draw26.63% Away22.16%
    7–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home45.81% Draw28.10% Away26.09%
    7–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home44.88% Draw28.22% Away26.90%
    7–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home44.30% Draw29.03% Away26.68%
    7–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home44.28% Draw27.14% Away28.59%
    7–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home44.28% Draw27.14% Away28.59%
    7–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home44.28% Draw27.14% Away28.59%
    7–0 Correct pick
  14. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Altavilla Virtus Bolzano
    Home39.87% Draw33.23% Away26.90%
    7–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.