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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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482graded matches
0.5674Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9577Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 18 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.3%7.0%71
10–20%16.3%16.2%197
20–30%24.8%23.9%528
30–40%34.4%31.5%222
40–50%44.8%47.6%187
50–60%54.9%58.4%113
60–70%64.5%65.7%70
70–80%75.9%84.6%26
80–90%83.5%68.4%19
90–100%95.4%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (482)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 20:11 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home46.88% Draw26.60% Away26.53%
    3–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home46.96% Draw26.56% Away26.48%
    3–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home46.96% Draw26.56% Away26.48%
    3–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home46.96% Draw26.56% Away26.48%
    3–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home46.96% Draw26.56% Away26.48%
    3–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home46.96% Draw26.56% Away26.48%
    3–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home56.09% Draw24.54% Away19.37%
    3–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home54.38% Draw24.95% Away20.67%
    3–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home55.52% Draw23.93% Away20.55%
    3–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home41.10% Draw27.49% Away31.41%
    3–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home41.10% Draw27.49% Away31.41%
    3–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home41.10% Draw27.49% Away31.41%
    3–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 · Greece
    Fokikos Thiva
    Home37.63% Draw29.65% Away32.72%
    3–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.