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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5850Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9840Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%12.5%40
10–20%16.1%14.3%182
20–30%25.0%23.3%588
30–40%34.4%32.5%237
40–50%44.6%51.1%190
50–60%54.5%59.5%126
60–70%64.0%64.3%56
70–80%73.7%66.7%42
80–90%85.7%88.9%9
90–100%93.7%66.7%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 31 Oct 2026 · 23:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home50.22% Draw25.60% Away24.17%
    2–0 Correct pick
  2. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home49.69% Draw26.32% Away23.98%
    2–0 Correct pick
  3. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home53.12% Draw25.61% Away21.28%
    2–0 Correct pick
  4. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home53.14% Draw25.62% Away21.24%
    2–0 Correct pick
  5. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home53.14% Draw25.62% Away21.24%
    2–0 Correct pick
  6. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home53.14% Draw25.62% Away21.24%
    2–0 Correct pick
  7. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home53.14% Draw25.62% Away21.24%
    2–0 Correct pick
  8. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home53.14% Draw25.62% Away21.24%
    2–0 Correct pick
  9. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home52.53% Draw26.23% Away21.24%
    2–0 Correct pick
  10. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home49.59% Draw26.66% Away23.74%
    2–0 Correct pick
  11. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home36.62% Draw37.52% Away25.86%
    2–0 Missed
  12. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home20.25% Draw40.36% Away39.39%
    2–0 Missed
  13. Published FA WSL · England
    Liverpool W Everton W
    Home23.62% Draw38.64% Away37.73%
    2–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.