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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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480graded matches
0.5629Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9501Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 20 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.3%4.3%70
10–20%16.4%17.0%200
20–30%24.7%23.6%513
30–40%34.4%31.4%236
40–50%44.7%49.2%177
50–60%54.7%57.3%117
60–70%64.6%63.8%69
70–80%75.5%81.5%27
80–90%83.9%83.3%18
90–100%95.4%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (480)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 15:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home26.11% Draw25.14% Away48.76%
    0–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home25.92% Draw25.10% Away48.97%
    0–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home25.96% Draw25.10% Away48.94%
    0–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home25.96% Draw25.10% Away48.94%
    0–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home25.96% Draw25.10% Away48.94%
    0–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home25.96% Draw25.10% Away48.94%
    0–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home35.98% Draw26.58% Away37.45%
    0–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home36.04% Draw26.58% Away37.38%
    0–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home35.85% Draw26.97% Away37.18%
    0–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home27.65% Draw25.30% Away47.05%
    0–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home4.67% Draw11.74% Away83.59%
    0–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home12.98% Draw21.12% Away65.90%
    0–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Mineiro - 3 · Brazil
    Siderurgica Betim 2
    Home37.63% Draw29.65% Away32.72%
    0–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.