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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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491graded matches
0.5791Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9721Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.4%3.8%53
10–20%16.3%15.3%196
20–30%24.9%25.1%553
30–40%34.5%33.5%245
40–50%44.7%46.8%186
50–60%54.7%53.1%128
60–70%65.0%63.1%65
70–80%75.1%87.0%23
80–90%84.0%86.7%15
90–100%95.6%100.0%9

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 02:11 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home16.94% Draw22.99% Away60.07%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home16.84% Draw23.04% Away60.13%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home16.95% Draw23.05% Away60.00%
    0–0 Missed
  4. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home17.19% Draw22.90% Away59.90%
    0–0 Missed
  5. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home17.19% Draw22.90% Away59.90%
    0–0 Missed
  6. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home17.19% Draw22.90% Away59.90%
    0–0 Missed
  7. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home17.19% Draw22.90% Away59.90%
    0–0 Missed
  8. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home17.25% Draw22.93% Away59.82%
    0–0 Missed
  9. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home18.66% Draw23.45% Away57.89%
    0–0 Missed
  10. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home18.66% Draw24.74% Away56.59%
    0–0 Missed
  11. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home19.97% Draw18.18% Away61.85%
    0–0 Missed
  12. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home13.77% Draw43.60% Away42.63%
    0–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Home13.77% Draw43.60% Away42.63%
    0–0 Correct pick
  14. Published Second League - Group 3 · Russia
    Arsenal Tula II Metallurg Lipetsk
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.