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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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488graded matches
0.5524Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9372Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 12 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.3%7.9%38
10–20%16.4%11.2%206
20–30%25.0%22.9%551
30–40%34.2%34.1%249
40–50%44.5%47.7%176
50–60%54.7%56.8%125
60–70%64.0%74.7%75
70–80%74.7%94.3%35
80–90%86.0%75.0%8
90–100%91.6%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (488)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 11:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home39.26% Draw26.54% Away34.20%
    2–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home39.23% Draw26.60% Away34.17%
    2–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home39.22% Draw26.74% Away34.05%
    2–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home42.60% Draw27.26% Away30.15%
    2–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home42.60% Draw27.26% Away30.15%
    2–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home42.60% Draw27.26% Away30.15%
    2–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home42.60% Draw27.26% Away30.15%
    2–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home42.29% Draw27.29% Away30.42%
    2–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home41.73% Draw27.34% Away30.93%
    2–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home40.62% Draw29.02% Away30.36%
    2–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home44.38% Draw22.47% Away33.15%
    2–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home44.38% Draw22.47% Away33.15%
    2–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Home44.38% Draw22.47% Away33.15%
    2–0 Correct pick
  14. Published Second League - Group 2 · Russia
    Tver Torpedo Vladimir
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.