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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5924Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9930Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%0.0%33
10–20%16.0%18.0%211
20–30%25.1%24.9%571
30–40%34.5%31.2%234
40–50%44.7%50.8%177
50–60%54.8%55.6%133
60–70%65.1%53.9%76
70–80%73.5%80.8%26
80–90%84.6%100.0%6
90–100%93.5%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 22:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home40.77% Draw22.59% Away36.65%
    0–3 Missed
  2. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home40.77% Draw22.59% Away36.65%
    0–3 Missed
  3. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home31.66% Draw21.04% Away47.30%
    0–3 Correct pick
  4. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home31.67% Draw21.04% Away47.30%
    0–3 Correct pick
  5. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home31.67% Draw21.04% Away47.30%
    0–3 Correct pick
  6. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home31.67% Draw21.04% Away47.30%
    0–3 Correct pick
  7. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home31.67% Draw21.04% Away47.30%
    0–3 Correct pick
  8. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home36.65% Draw21.46% Away41.88%
    0–3 Correct pick
  9. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home36.89% Draw21.47% Away41.64%
    0–3 Correct pick
  10. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home37.36% Draw20.23% Away42.42%
    0–3 Correct pick
  11. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home47.50% Draw20.35% Away32.15%
    0–3 Missed
  12. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home47.50% Draw20.35% Away32.15%
    0–3 Missed
  13. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home47.50% Draw20.35% Away32.15%
    0–3 Missed
  14. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Hollandia Hercules
    Home12.99% Draw26.77% Away60.24%
    0–3 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.