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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5594Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9437Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%4.8%63
10–20%15.7%14.6%240
20–30%24.8%24.3%531
30–40%34.8%33.6%211
40–50%45.0%48.0%173
50–60%54.7%54.6%108
60–70%64.3%67.5%80
70–80%75.1%80.0%45
80–90%84.3%78.3%23
90–100%94.8%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 14 Nov 2026 · 18:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home32.62% Draw26.50% Away40.88%
    0–3 Correct pick
  2. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home36.23% Draw27.13% Away36.64%
    0–3 Correct pick
  3. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home59.63% Draw23.13% Away17.24%
    0–3 Missed
  4. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home59.54% Draw23.11% Away17.35%
    0–3 Missed
  5. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home58.75% Draw23.58% Away17.67%
    0–3 Missed
  6. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home58.18% Draw23.77% Away18.05%
    0–3 Missed
  7. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home58.18% Draw23.77% Away18.05%
    0–3 Missed
  8. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home56.45% Draw23.35% Away20.20%
    0–3 Missed
  9. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home56.45% Draw23.35% Away20.20%
    0–3 Missed
  10. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home55.87% Draw23.98% Away20.15%
    0–3 Missed
  11. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home51.14% Draw27.43% Away21.43%
    0–3 Missed
  12. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  13. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  14. Published Friendlies · World
    China New Zealand
    Home58.10% Draw27.04% Away14.86%
    0–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.