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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5791Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9724Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%0.0%38
10–20%16.0%14.9%195
20–30%25.1%24.3%576
30–40%34.5%32.2%242
40–50%44.8%52.5%181
50–60%54.7%57.6%125
60–70%65.1%56.0%75
70–80%73.5%83.3%24
80–90%84.6%100.0%6
90–100%93.4%100.0%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 17:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home32.87% Draw26.20% Away40.93%
    2–0 Missed
  2. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home32.84% Draw26.28% Away40.88%
    2–0 Missed
  3. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home32.75% Draw26.36% Away40.89%
    2–0 Missed
  4. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home32.94% Draw25.51% Away41.55%
    2–0 Missed
  5. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home32.94% Draw25.51% Away41.55%
    2–0 Missed
  6. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home32.94% Draw25.51% Away41.55%
    2–0 Missed
  7. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home32.94% Draw25.51% Away41.55%
    2–0 Missed
  8. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home33.36% Draw25.60% Away41.05%
    2–0 Missed
  9. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home33.70% Draw25.61% Away40.69%
    2–0 Missed
  10. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home33.24% Draw26.76% Away39.99%
    2–0 Missed
  11. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home51.50% Draw21.26% Away27.24%
    2–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home39.16% Draw40.12% Away20.72%
    2–0 Missed
  13. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home39.16% Draw40.12% Away20.72%
    2–0 Missed
  14. Published Second League - Group 4 · Russia
    Nosta Orenburg II
    Home31.02% Draw34.97% Away34.01%
    2–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.