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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5727Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9635Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.2%3.6%55
10–20%16.3%14.9%194
20–30%24.9%24.6%557
30–40%34.5%33.1%242
40–50%44.8%46.9%194
50–60%54.5%56.2%121
60–70%64.9%63.2%68
70–80%75.0%87.0%23
80–90%84.0%86.7%15
90–100%95.8%100.0%10

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 09:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home32.82% Draw27.97% Away39.21%
    1–2 Correct pick
  2. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home32.61% Draw28.61% Away38.78%
    1–2 Correct pick
  3. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home35.24% Draw28.13% Away36.63%
    1–2 Correct pick
  4. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home35.15% Draw28.15% Away36.70%
    1–2 Correct pick
  5. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home35.15% Draw28.15% Away36.70%
    1–2 Correct pick
  6. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home35.15% Draw28.15% Away36.70%
    1–2 Correct pick
  7. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home35.15% Draw28.15% Away36.70%
    1–2 Correct pick
  8. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home35.15% Draw28.15% Away36.70%
    1–2 Correct pick
  9. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home46.12% Draw27.02% Away26.86%
    1–2 Missed
  10. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home42.89% Draw26.31% Away30.81%
    1–2 Missed
  11. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home42.89% Draw26.31% Away30.81%
    1–2 Missed
  12. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home42.89% Draw26.31% Away30.81%
    1–2 Missed
  13. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Casertana Catania
    Home26.83% Draw34.47% Away38.69%
    1–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.