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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5610Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9493Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.0%11.8%34
10–20%16.2%10.1%207
20–30%25.0%23.6%555
30–40%34.2%33.6%253
40–50%44.4%48.9%180
50–60%54.7%54.9%122
60–70%64.2%74.0%77
70–80%74.2%90.6%32
80–90%85.1%75.0%8
90–100%92.8%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 01:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home49.41% Draw26.48% Away24.11%
    6–2 Correct pick
  2. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home49.13% Draw26.64% Away24.23%
    6–2 Correct pick
  3. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home51.58% Draw26.32% Away22.09%
    6–2 Correct pick
  4. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home51.67% Draw26.31% Away22.03%
    6–2 Correct pick
  5. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home51.67% Draw26.31% Away22.03%
    6–2 Correct pick
  6. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home51.67% Draw26.31% Away22.03%
    6–2 Correct pick
  7. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home51.67% Draw26.31% Away22.03%
    6–2 Correct pick
  8. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home51.67% Draw26.31% Away22.03%
    6–2 Correct pick
  9. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home58.38% Draw23.61% Away18.01%
    6–2 Correct pick
  10. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home61.62% Draw23.92% Away14.46%
    6–2 Correct pick
  11. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home44.32% Draw45.28% Away10.40%
    6–2 Missed
  12. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home44.14% Draw45.10% Away10.76%
    6–2 Missed
  13. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
    Mijas Las Lagunas Tamaraceite
    Home38.10% Draw39.01% Away22.89%
    6–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.