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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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482graded matches
0.5665Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9563Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 18 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.4%7.0%71
10–20%16.3%16.4%201
20–30%24.8%23.8%526
30–40%34.3%31.5%219
40–50%44.8%47.8%186
50–60%54.9%58.4%113
60–70%64.5%64.8%71
70–80%75.8%82.1%28
80–90%83.6%72.2%18
90–100%95.4%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (482)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 18:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home36.46% Draw28.49% Away35.04%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home32.36% Draw28.36% Away39.27%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home31.28% Draw26.85% Away41.87%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home31.27% Draw26.84% Away41.88%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home31.27% Draw26.84% Away41.88%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home31.27% Draw26.84% Away41.88%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home31.27% Draw26.84% Away41.88%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home31.27% Draw26.84% Away41.88%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home31.20% Draw29.35% Away39.45%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home61.06% Draw27.48% Away11.46%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home61.06% Draw27.48% Away11.46%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home61.06% Draw27.48% Away11.46%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
    Cieza Atlético Baleares
    Home35.59% Draw33.73% Away30.68%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.